Historical and Recent Climate Variability and Warming Signals in the Chaschoc–Sejá Lagoon Socio-Ecosystem (Tabasco, Mexico)
Palabras clave:
Climate oscillation; , Local warming, SPI, Chaschoc–Sejá lagoon systemResumen
This study characterizes historical (1984–2003) and recent (2004–2023) climate conditions in the Chaschoc–Sejá lagoon system, southeastern Tabasco, Mexico, using ERA5 reanalysis data and large-scale climate indices associated with ENSO, PDO, and AMO. Monthly temperature and precipitation were analyzed, trends were assessed using the Mann–Kendall test, drought variability was evaluated through the 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-12), and teleconnection influence was examined using Pearson correlation analysis. The warming signal represents a robust local-scale expression of broader anthropogenic climate change. In contrast, precipitation variability remains strongly modulated by large-scale oscillations, particularly ENSO and PDO, which exhibit significant inverse correlations with SPI-12.
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